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Cape Town is South Africa's second-largest city. The 2022 national census put its population at 4.8 million. The City's own Census 2022 analysis gives 4,772,846, which is 27.6% higher than in 2011 and a slowdown from the previous intercensal period. The earlier census counts were 2,562,444 in 1996, 2,892,243 in 2001 and 3,740,031 in 2011.
Official projections are well below 10 million. The City's draft long-term plan (the 2050 plan) expects the metro to grow more slowly than in past decades, adding 1.5 to 2.9 million people to its 2022 base of 4.8 million. That would put the 2050 population at roughly 6.3 to 7.7 million. An earlier City report estimated 5.8 million people by 2040. The draft plan says fertility is expected to hold steady or decline, so migration will be the main driver of growth. It also expects the population to age, with residents aged 65 and older rising from 6.2% in 2016 to 15% by 2050.
Population projections shape long-term spending on water, housing, transport, electricity and land use, including the Municipal Spatial Development Framework and the infrastructure budgets built on it. The City's research reports note that climate change, population growth and the need for developable land remain key pressures. Debate over how fast the city grows, and whether to plan for it, bears on service delivery, the cost of living and the city's long-term planning.